26 SEPTEMBER 2020
Let’s speak to a man who has a lot of experience with China. Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of Australia, now president of the Asia Society, Policy Institute. Mr. Rudd, is that headline grabbing thing to say, isn’t it? the United Nations General Assembly? Do you think in a very directed economy with a population that’s given very little individual choice, it is possible? And if so, how?
I think it is possible. And the reason I say so is because China does have a state planning system. And on top of that, China has concluded, I think that it’s in its own national interests, to bring about a radical reduction in carbon over time. So the two big announcements coming out of Xi Jinping at the UN General Assembly have been A, the one you’ve just referred to, which is to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. And also for China to reach what’s called peak greenhouse gas emissions before 2030. The international community have been pressuring them to bring that forward as much as possible, respectively, we hope to close to 2050. And we hope close to 2025, as far as peak emissions are concerned, but we’ll have to wait and see until China produces its 14th five year plan.
I guess we can probably assume that President Trump wasn’t impressed, he’s made his position pretty clear on these matters. How do you think other countries will respond? Or will they just say, well, that’s China, China can do that we really can’t?
Well, I think you’re right to characterize President Trump’s reaction as dismissive, because ultimately, he does not seem to be persuaded at all by the climate change science. And the United States under his presidency has been completely missing in action, in terms of global work on climate change, mitigation activity. But when you look at the other big player on global climate change actions, the European Union, and I think positively speaking, both the European Union and working as they did, through their virtual discussions with the Chinese leadership last week, had been encouraging directly the Chinese to take these sorts of actions. I think the Europeans will be pleased by what they have heard. But there’s a caveat to this as well. One of the other things that Europeans asked is for China, not just to make concrete its commitments in terms of peak emissions and carbon neutrality, but also not to offshore China’s responsibilities by building a lot of carbon based or fossil fuel based power generation plants in the Belt and Road Initiative countries beyond China’s borders. That’s where we have to see further action by China as well.
Just briefly, if you can, you know, there will be people yelling at the screen, given how fast climate change is becoming a climate emergency, that 2050-2060 is nowhere near soon enough that we have to inflict really massive changes on ourselves.
Well, the bottom line is that if you look at the science, it requires us to be carbon neutral by 2050. As a planet, given the China is the world’s largest emitter by a country mile, then I’d say to those throwing shoes at the screen, getting China to that position, given where they were, frankly 10 years ago when I first began negotiating with the Chinese leadership on climate change matters is a big step forward. And secondly, what I find most encouraging though, is that China’s national political interests, I think, have been engaged. They don’t want to suffocate their own national economic future, any more than they want to suffocate the world’s.