Euronews: Europe and China after COVID-19

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RplE07fQ8Lg[/embed]E&OE TRANSCRIPTTELEVISION INTERVIEWEURONEWS NOW, EURONEWS8 MAY 2020Topics: Coronavirus, Europe-China relationsROSIE WRIGHT: Well, let's hear now from the former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. He's now president of the Asia Society Policy Institute. And he joins us from the Sunshine Coast to the north of Brisbane in Queensland. Thank you very much for your time. This year was going to be quite a crucial year for relations between the EU and China. But how would you describe the state of relations since the pandemic?KEVIN RUDD: Well, you're right, from a Beijing perspective, the European relationship is important. In fact, it'd become more important as a result of the US China trade war during 2018-19 and the prospect of greater economic decoupling between Washington and Beijing. And so China had rightly identified Europe as an alternative in terms of trade markets, in terms of technology markets, in terms of access to technology, but also in terms of capital markets as well. Now with the COVID-19 crisis, you see new fundamental tensions emerging between not just Brussels and Beijing, but between European capitals and Beijing as well. And this goes to the heart of the question of where the virus came from, how is it transmitted, and did China honour all of its obligations to the World Health Organization under the International Health Regulations? So, you have therefore this major interruption to what was planned as an important element of Chinese global strategy from 2020 onwards as they anticipated a rift in the US-China relationship. And of course, our European friends will have to determine what will constitute their own long-term strategy of strategic engagement or competition with Beijing.ROSIE WRIGHT: How cautious will those world leaders be in rebuilding that relationship? And are they motivated to do so?KEVIN RUDD: Well, I can't get inside the head of Chancellor Merkel who I have known in the past throught the G20. President Macron I don't know and Prime Minister Johnson I don't know. Some of the other European leaders I do. But I think the dilemmas faced in European capitals are to be frank, very similar to the dilemmas faced in Asian capitals. It's the essential structural tension between an overwhelming and growing economic interest in comprehensive engagement with China on the one hand, but now, on the other, continuing to run up against the realities of a Leninist one-party state, not just in terms of human rights, not just in terms of, shall we say, some of the security postures adopted by China more broadly, particularly in terms of cyber, but now in terms of full global transparency on the question of the management of this pandemic. So the tensions are not unique to our European friends. We in Australia have felt them for a long, long time. But the question of achieving the balance between those competing interests and values will be at the essence of what Brussels and European capitals determine as their future strategy with the People's Republic.ROSIE WRIGHT: You talk about those different competing interests. Which do you think holds the most weight? Because presumably those European leaders and further afield from Europe, the economics of this, is that front and center, or do you think that's the main defining factor in how this relationship will be determined?KEVIN RUDD: Well, for those of us who are allies of the United States here in Asia, whether it's from Japan, South Korea, or in Australia, the view of European postures towards China over the last decade-plus has been Europe’s strategy is one, put the economy first, two, say that the security issues are secondary and primarily Asian in focus, and if America's got concerns with the Chinese than they should be limited to East Asia. And three, we Europeans will periodically raise concerns about human rights. Of course, the problem now is Europe faces front and center, the direct reality of other aspects of the behaviour of the Chinese state. Now, my own view is that many of these issues alive in terms of what happened with the emergence of the virus, the transmission of it, Chinese notification processes domestically and the role of the WHO are unclear at this stage. And they do deserve objective inquiry so we can establish the facts on that. But I think the coronavirus crisis represents very much a new reality for the Europeans to confront as they consider their macro-relationship with Europe, rather than what we've seen in the past, which is to say, ‘most of the downside of China's global engagement is an Asian or Trans Pacific matter; we in the Transatlantic and in the European continent, don't have to worry about that’. That was the previous view. I think that's now subject to fundamental revision.ROSIE WRIGHT: Of course, while leaders are thinking about how to carefully manage these new diplomatic tensions they're also dealing with on their doorsteps, the realities of the pandemic. Give us an idea of what it's like in Australia because Australia and New Zealand have been very differently affected to the continent. At one point, the World Health Organization designated Europe as the epicenter of the outbreak. What's the status of the lockdown procedures in Australia now?KEVIN RUDD: Well, I think Australia and New Zealand need to be viewed, as I won't say an entity but as mutually reinforcing political systems and policy arrangements. I think Jacinda Ardern the New Zealand Prime Minister took an early decision, quite courageous in my view, which was to eliminate the virus. Obviously, that's assisted by being an island state and being a relatively small state. But, as a result, she took early and quite hardline positions on closing borders, as well as domestic lockdown arrangements. And the Australian Government, I think observing what was happening in New Zealand followed fairly rapidly in suit, in similar order. Now, as a consequence of that, there have been relatively good numbers emerge from Australia and New Zealand in terms of numbers of deaths, numbers of infections so far, and of course, the beginnings of a release of lockdown arrangements. But here's the big caveat. One, we do not know yet the reality of second wave effects in any country, including China where the virus began. And number two, we also don't know the extent to which southern hemisphere countries have been advantaged by climatic factors as well. So I think rather than exercise any Southern European hubris, about better performance on some of these questions, we need to be very cautious about the future as well.ROSIE WRIGHT: How do you think the government are balancing sort of as everyone is trying to do public health, with the economy in terms of the lockdown restrictions? And do you think they've got that balance right?KEVIN RUDD: On the public health measures, New Zealand acted early. Australia then followed a little later. But so far, it's been, as I said, relatively effective when measured against the numbers so far. If there's a critique to be delivered against the Australian Government, it's to do with the timing and sequencing of economic intervention measures to cushion the impact on the Australian economy. Very simply put the announcement of lockdown measures domestically, which as you know, in every country grinds the economy to a halt preceded the announcement of wage guarantee measures in Australia. The result being a massive and immediate spike in unemployment before employers understood that wage guarantee arrangements would be flowing forward. So if there's been an error in the Australian Government approach, it's in that sequencing and the economic data for Australia for the year ahead, as projected by the IMF and other institutions, is as dark as it is for most other advanced economies.ROSIE WRIGHT: Thanks very much for your time. Really appreciate it. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, now the president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, speaking to us from Queensland in Australia, thank you.