Ex-Australian prime minister calls for dialogue: CNA Taiwan

Taipei, Oct. 26 (CNA) Republic of China (Taiwan) President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and China's leader Xi Jinping should resume dialogue on the Taiwan issue, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told a business forum in Taipei on Wednesday, adding that a war in the Taiwan Strait would adversely impact the entire region.

Both Tsai and Xi should "resume the diplomatic track [and/or] the political track for discussions for the future," said Rudd, who currently serves as president and chief executive officer of the research institute Asia Society, while virtually attending the forum held by Taiwan-based Global Views Monthly.

Although it remains unclear what results could be achieved from such bilateral talks, both sides of the Taiwan Strait have a responsibility to try to resolve their historical problems, including the status of Taiwan, through diplomatic and political means, said Rudd, who served as Australian prime minister from 2007 to 2010, and again in 2013.

"When that [dialogue] is not happening, what happens is all the pressure goes back on to U.S.-China relations. And because U.S.-China diplomatic relations are so poor, the pressure then goes back on to the U.S. and Chinese military; and that is dangerous," he said.

He went on to say that a war in the Taiwan Strait would undermine the peace, stability and economic prosperity of the entire region.

The New York-based former official also urged Xi and United States President Joe Biden to begin working toward "a stabilization plan" for the U.S.-China relationship at the G20 meeting scheduled for Nov. 15-16 in Bali, Indonesia, where the two are expected to meet.

According to Rudd, the next 10 years will be a "perilous" period as strategic competition between the U.S. and China continues.

Rudd proposed what he called "managed strategic competition" as a way to reduce the risk of competition escalating into conflict.

The concept requires the U.S. and China to jointly establish a framework for effective communication and draw limits on each other's security policies and conduct.

Both sides will still compete for strategic and economic influence, but they will stop short of breaching the limits they have set out and agreed on, he said.

At the same time, they can seek ways to collaborate on certain global issues, such as combating climate change, promoting public health, and preventing nuclear proliferation, he added.

These efforts should be bilateral, Rudd said, adding that to maintain the peace, stability and prosperity of the world for future generations, everyone has to make an effort.

（中央社記者陳俊華台北26日電）前澳洲總理陸克文今天說，台海發生戰爭時，恐怕不只破壞台灣，更破壞全地區和平穩定與經濟繁榮。他鼓勵總統蔡英文跟中國國家主席習近平試著找到新途徑，恢復政治對話，解決歷史問題。

遠見天下文化事業群今天舉辦「2022第二十屆遠見高峰會」，邀陸克文以「可避免的戰爭」為題視訊演講，並與前總統馬英九對談。

陸克文曾在台灣學習中文，長期研究兩岸問題。他演講時以流利中文表示，中美競爭將在2020年代進入決定性階段，是對大家很危險的10年，中美戰略競爭加劇已不可避免，然而中美戰爭是可以避免的，雙方仍有可能設置預防戰爭發生及管控戰爭的大框架，透過這個框架，彼此可降低衝突風險。

陸克文說，「管控的戰略競爭」這個概念，是建立框架確定雙方有效溝通，並同意必須共同遵守的底線，在這底線上中美雙方充分競爭，看誰的發展比較好，能為自己的人民創造更好生活，也看誰的模式在全世界比較受歡迎。

陸克文表示，在充分競爭之外，雙方還是可以在關鍵領域合作，比如氣候變化、公共衛生、防止核擴散等。如果2030年沒有在台灣海峽發生軍事危機或衝突，也沒有發生破壞性強大的網路攻擊，就是成功。

陸克文說，其次，如果雙方為解決全球問題，各自提出最好方案並付出行動，那也是成功的；若雙方合作，啟動對抗氣候變化、防止下次疫情發生，也是成功的。為了讓下一代生活在自由、繁榮、和平中，每個人都要為此付出努力。

馬英九說，總統蔡英文強調不畏戰、不求戰的原則，但這是每個國家基本底線，更重要的是備戰、避戰、謀和。他2007年競選總統時提出「和陸、友日、親美」大戰略，現在微調成「和陸、親美、友日」，大方向不變。

馬英九表示，「馬習會」時沒人擔心台灣跟大陸會發生戰爭，但換人執政後，政策完全改變，兩岸關係一直在惡化；1992年達成「一中各表」的共識，是雙方互信基礎，希望台灣不會跟大陸走向戰爭，更不會變成第二個烏克蘭。

在對談時，陸克文說，台灣與大陸應恢復政治途徑，嘗試解決台灣地位的重大問題；如果不能解決好台灣問題，未來可能發生戰爭時，恐怕不只是破壞台灣，而是破壞全地區的和平、穩定性與經濟繁榮。台灣政府及共產黨對全球的責任，是要利用外交、政治途徑解決問題。

陸克文表示，鼓勵蔡英文和習近平試著找到新途徑，恢復開啟政治對話，談話最後結果還不知道，「但如果不談話，是不是要打仗？」這是不好的，台灣未來領導人要繼續跟大陸用政治途徑，試著解決歷史問題。

馬英九說，主動與大陸對談，不一定能馬上解決問題，但一定能讓緊張情勢暫時和緩，對談一定能找出雙方都能接受的方案。如果不跟對方談，只靠美國打，這是最危險的，台灣一方面備戰、一方面避戰，用謀和來避戰，是唯一能走的路。（編輯：翟思嘉）1111026